The COVID-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on our world. As many countries reach or pass their ‘peak’, we are all asking the same questions – what does the future hold, when will we get back to normal…. and what will that ‘normal’ be?
Throughout the past few weeks of lockdown, I have kept thinking back to my Jane Austen books. Austen wrote classics such as Emma and Pride and Prejudice – many made into movies in recent years, if reading old English literature is not your style! In many of these stories, heroines fall dangerously ill from simply being caught in the rain. As I read these books as a teenager, safe in the medically-advanced 20th century, this seemed the ultimate exaggeration for the purposes of romance, but in fact such ‘frailties’ reflected the medical realities of the time. Of course, there were no antibiotics, and we have discussed previously (in a blog on antimicrobial resistance, AMR) that most of us now take for granted the ability to fight infections that many years ago could have caused severe illness or death.
One hundred years ago, life was pretty risky (but life carried on, nevertheless).
At the time of writing that AMR blog, returning to a time when we might not be able to fight infection still seemed something that was avoidable. The suggestion that, just 4 months later, the whole world would be locked down to prevent the spread of an untreatable disease would have seemed the stuff of fiction.
Yet here we are.
What this teaches us, I think, is that as we plan for the ‘new normal’, perhaps the most important thing is to remain open-minded to all sorts of possibilities. The past few months have proven to us – in the bleakest possible way – that past performance is not an indicator of the future.
Primarily, McKinsey & Co have identified ‘Distance’ as a major challenge to which we will need to adapt. To deal with the COVID-19 pandemic, governments around the world have imposed restrictions on people and goods, of a severity not seen for decades. Of course, borders will eventually reopen, but according to McKinsey it is possible that the previous status quo will never return. This could mean a shift towards manufacturers seeking more local products and services, significantly impacting supply chains and driving a move to bring sourcing closer to end markets.
For our industry, where as much as 80% of APIs used by pharmaceutical ingredient suppliers and manufacturers in the US originate from China or India, this shift has the potential to shatter current supply chains. Manufacturers might soon (or already) be seeking more local suppliers of ingredients. Ed Price, President and CEO of PCI Synthesis, highlighted this move to localization in Pharma’s Almanac recently, pointing out that manufacturers in the US have taken various steps already, from bringing raw material production in house to substituting with alternative materials. However, he added that it would take years to establish full domestic manufacturing capability.
Therefore, it seems likely that the US will continue to require supplies from Asia for the next few years, at least – no immediate cessation in demand is likely. Looking further into the future, however, if moves to localization are to be resisted, manufacturers will need to be reassured that the benefits of globalization do not come at the cost of supply chain disruption in the future.
One obvious way to avoid such disruptions is to ensure that all manufacturers have several months’ inventory of key ingredients. As discussed previously in relation to the impact of COVID-19 on pharma supply chains, the current situation cannot have been predicted, so no blame should be laid on any companies that did not secure such an inventory before the coronavirus outbreak. However, the same might not be true going forward, and securing an adequate inventory is one of the tips given by McKinsey & Co in their advice to companies re-thinking their business models for the new future. According to McKinsey, "supply chains built on just-in-time inventory and distributed component sourcing may well have to be reconsidered, given the way many have been disrupted. Instead, companies will want to build backup and safety plans."
An interesting and positive outcome from pandemic is an incr...
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