This year, the global pharmaceutical market has been predicted to reach US$1.3 trillion, but what is driving this continued growth, and what factors are likely to have a major impact on the pharma industry in 2020? As a new year begins, I am pleased to uphold the long-held tradition of editors and pundits considering hot topics and trends for the year ahead…
In 2019, the US Food & Drug Administration (FDA) approved 48 new molecular entities (NMEs). This is somewhat lower than the 59 NMEs approved in 2018, which was widely considered a bumper year for new drug approvals, but 48 approvals still suggests a healthy level of innovation in the pharma industry. Similar to 2018, 2019 saw a high number of approvals for indications in oncology (10/48), supporting recent predictions that oncology products will dominate the market in 2020.
According to the market analysis company Pharma Intelligence, there will be as many as 85 key drug launches in 2020 and, of those, 27 (31.8%) will be for oncology. The next most common launches this year will be for infectious diseases (9 drugs, 10.6%) and autoimmune/immunology (8 drugs, 9.4%). These new drugs are expected to be launched by 64 distinct companies, most notably AstraZeneca (6 launches, including 2 for oncology) and GlaxoSmithKline (5 launches, including 3 for oncology). On this basis, it seems fair to identify oncology as a hot topic for 2020.
Somewhat related to oncology, considering its position at the front of the personalized medicine movement, the traditional blockbuster sales model is starting to disappear. As more new drugs are developed for targeted population cohorts, the market sizes for those drugs are likely to shrink. There can be no doubt that new models of healthcare, and the shift towards smaller volume therapies for targeted cohorts, will have profound effects on the pharma supply chain. The future is likely to require more flexible manufacturing that must be as efficient as possible, as solutions for enhancing production must help the industry to maintain its growth and ensure affordable, accessible healthcare for patients across the world. Demand for enhanced productivity and cost efficiency are driving many of the disruptive technologies in pharma manufacturing.
These pressures, and the industry’s current focus on biologics and gene therapies, are also driving a surge in mergers and acquisitions – dubbed recently by Lisa Jarvis in CE&N as ‘the return of the megamerger’. Last year saw several major medical surgical supply companies make mammoth deals, such as Bristol-Myers Squibb’s acquisition of Celgene, Roche’s acquisition of Spark Therapeutics and Abbvie’s acquisition of Allergan. As well as having considerable impact on the pharma industry’s rankings, many of these mergers sought to secure leadership positions and broader expertise in oncology, immunology and gene therapy. A number of small to medium biotech companies were absorbed by larger entities, and more are likely to follow suit in 2020. Companies are set to continue building their pipelines through a ‘buy and build’ strategy and, apparently, we might even see one or two more megamergers in 2020.
Big data and digitalization have been major drivers of the evolving healthcare environment in recent years, and we should expect no change in 2020. Previous blogs in this series have considered the impact of these factors at length and we will not repeat ourselves here – suffice to say that digitalization will continue to have a massive impact on drug discovery, development, manufacturing and delivery well into 2020 and beyond. The industry’s digital transformation is a journey that has only just started – we still have a long way to go.
Finally, as a British writer, I cannot omit the factor that is probably going to have the biggest impact in my own country this year. A few weeks after our general election, the results of which could be perceived as a frustrated vote for “just get Brexit done and stop all this uncertainty”, the UK now look set to leave the European Union (EU) at the end of January. Of the 12,300 medicines used in the UK, around 7,000 come from or via the EU. Throughout the long a...
(All Rights Reserved)